University dropout is a critical challenge in higher education, with significant implications for both individuals and society. Among the factors influencing dropout risk, psychological well-being, academic motivation, and perceived self-efficacy play a key role.

This study investigates the associations between psychological well-being, academic motivation, and dropout, focusing on the potential mediating role of academic self-efficacy and autonomous motivation in the relationship between well-being and dropout intentions.

A total of 476 university students (mean age: 26.5 ± 9.6; 72.9% women, 27.1% men) completed an online questionnaire, including the Academic Motivation Scale, the Students’ Self-Efficacy Scale, the Outcome Questionnaire-45, and a brief ad-hoc measure of dropout intentions. To evaluate the study hypotheses, regression-based mediation analysis was performed, modeling autonomous motivation and academic self-efficacy as serial mediators. Results revealed that psychological well-being was associated with dropout intentions both directly and indirectly, through a sequential pathway involving both autonomous motivation and self-efficacy. Notably, significant indirect effects were observed not only for the individual contributions of autonomous motivation and self-efficacy but also for their sequential relationship, acting as a broader mediating pathway.

Overall, these findings underscore the importance of promoting students’ well-being and motivation to foster academic persistence and reduce dropout risk, offering valuable implications for sustainable education policies and student support services. Accordingly, tailored interventions may be developed to specifically enhance motivational assets and perceived self-efficacy, encouraging autonomous self-regulation for promoting academic success.

Keywords: University dropout, autonomous motivation, self-efficacy, psychological well-being.