Affordability of the education can be stated as individual’s capacity to access needed education while having sufficient resources to enjoy the minimum consumption of essential good and services. This paper discusses the upward trajectory of tuition fees in British Columbia, Canada, which have consistently outpaced inflation and wage growth,contributing to a rise in student debt. The research addresses a significant gap in literature regarding the long-term effects of tuition increases on marginalized groups in British Columbia and the interplay between federal and provincial policies in shaping post-secondary education accessibility.

The investigation examines British Columbia's position within the Canadian provincial context, focusing on predictive analysis of tuition trends and their correlation with student debt and funding mechanisms. This research employed a quantitative methodology using secondary data from Statistics Canada. The study analyzed tuition fees for domestic and international students in relation to GDP trends, student loan amounts across academic levels, and federal and non-federal funding. A Linear Regression model was used to forecast future tuition and funding patterns. The predictions used historical data from 2000–2022 and projected trends to 2029. The findings reveal trends in British Columbia's education affordability. Predictive analysis shows that BC will maintain its position as having the highest domestic tuition fees in Canada, projected to exceed 40,000 CAD by 2029. For international students, BC ranks second most expensive. The study shows an inverse relationship between government funding and tuition increases—particularly between 2010 and 2015, when tuition rose and funding dropped from 1,000 million CAD to 700 million CAD.

BC’s domestic tuition fees have been Canada’s highest since 2008 and are expected to remain so through 2029. During COVID-19, while Canada's GDP fell from 1,750 to 1,650 billion CAD, tuition fees rose, increasing financial strain. Student debt analysis shows the average loan in BC rose from 11,000 CAD in 2000 to 17,000 in 2005, staying around 17,000 through 2020. Students with loans over 25,000 CAD made up 20% in 2020, only slightly down from 23% in 2000. Rising tuition, static funding, and debt levels have implications for student wellbeing. Quebec shows a different model: over 5,000 million CAD in non-federal and 1,000 million in federal research funding helped keep it the third least expensive for tuition. In contrast, BC’s funding stayed flat. Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, Newfoundland, and Prince Edward Island show similar patterns of high tuition and stagnant funding. The study shows BC and Ontario attract more international than domestic students, leading to different debt patterns. Student burden remains high and may worsen without policy changes. Projections show BC will remain the most expensive province, potentially limiting access for low- and middle-income families.

In conclusion, this study provides evidence that British Columbia faces a critical challenge in maintaining affordable post-secondary education, with current trends indicating continued deterioration in affordability without significant policy intervention. The predictive analysis serves as a planning tool for students and policymakers, while the examination of funding mechanisms provides a roadmap for potential solutions.

Keywords: Affordability, Post secondary education, British Columbia, tuition fee, funding.