Understanding and addressing student dropout rates in higher education is critical for fostering academic success and improving institutional performance. This study investigates student dropout rates at the State University of Milagro, Ecuador, through two distinct methodological approaches. The first approach identifies dropouts within the first two years of each cohort, from May-September 2019 to May-September 2022. A student is considered a dropout if they did not enroll in subsequent periods within the first two years of study. Statistical analyses, including Chi-square tests, were conducted to examine relationships between dropout rates and factors such as gender, academic periods, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The second approach involves a longitudinal follow-up of cohorts from May-September 2019 to November 2020 to February 2021, analyzing a four-year data span for each cohort. This method tracks students over a more extended period, identifying those who dropped out after the second semester and did not re-enroll for seven consecutive semesters. This comprehensive approach provides a detailed understanding of dropout patterns and their evolution. Findings indicate a significant increase in dropout rates during the COVID-19 pandemic. The first approach revealed an 8-9% dropout rate within the first two years for cohorts from 2019 to 2022.

In contrast, the second approach showed a cumulative dropout rate of 22% across the four years, with notable peaks during the pandemic. Specifically, the 2019-1S cohort had a 22% dropout rate, reflecting that 63 out of 288 students abandoned their studies. The pandemic cohorts of 2020-1S and 2020-2S exhibited the highest dropout rates, highlighting the pandemic's impact on student retention. Despite the transition to virtual education, dropout rates did not decrease, suggesting that technological and environmental barriers played a significant role. The increase in dropout rates during the pandemic underscores the potential impact of external factors such as access to technology, home environment conditions, and motivational challenges. Many students needed help accessing reliable internet connections and more technological tools to participate in online learning effectively.

Furthermore, the home environment, often not conducive to focused study, exacerbated these challenges. Motivational issues, heightened by the isolation and uncertainty brought about by the pandemic, also contributed to higher dropout rates. These findings emphasize the need for targeted interventions to support students in continuing their education despite such challenges. Identifying and addressing these factors is crucial for developing strategies to mitigate dropout rates.

Both approaches provide valuable insights into the patterns and causes of student dropout at the State University of Milagro. The study underscores the need for comprehensive support systems to mitigate dropout rates by identifying critical periods and factors associated with increased dropout rates. The results highlight the importance of continuous monitoring and targeted interventions to address the underlying causes of student dropout. Enhancing access to technology and providing psychological support could mitigate some of the identified challenges. Developing flexible learning options accommodating various home environments and personal circumstances could further support student retention.

Keywords: Student Dropout Rates, Higher Education, Retention Strategies, State University of Milagro Ecuador, Statistical Analysis, Online Learning, Technological Barriers, Academic Persistence, Home Environment.